Avocado vs. Coffee Farming in Kenya: Which Crop Offers the Best Returns in 2025?

In Kenya, the agricultural sector is going through a quiet revolution, which is being led not only by changes in policy but also by the dynamics of the market and the shifting patterns of climate.

Coffee has been regarded as a national treasure and a substantial contributor to the country's foreign exchange earnings for many years. On the other hand, avocado production, and more specifically the Hass variety, has emerged as a genuine rival, not only for the lucrative global export trade but also for the local markets. The price of coffee has reached an all-time high in recent months, and as a result, many farmers are reconsidering their decision to grow this traditional commodity.

In light of the fact that avocados are becoming more and more popular and that there is a growing need for them to be exported, a crucial question arises: which is the more profitable investment in 2025: coffee or avocado?

Farmers, agripreneurs, and investors can benefit from the information provided in this article, which provides a complete comparison of both crops and does so in great detail.

 1.      Requirements Regarding the Climate and the Environment

Kenya’s coffee thrives in specific conditions. The ideal conditions for its growth include high heights between 1,500 and 2,100 meters above sea level, volcanic soils that are well drained, and a regular rainfall of 1,000 to 2,000 mm per year that is consistent. The Arabica variety, which is prized for its flavour, calls for temperatures that are lower, ranging from 15 degrees Celsius to 24 degrees Celsius. Because of the damage that can be caused by frost and extended drought, coffee is a crop that requires careful management.

Hass avocados are more adaptable. A temperature range of 15–25 degrees Celsius and moderate rainfall between 1,000 and 1,600 mm is suitable for their growth, and they thrive at altitudes ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 meters. The capacity of avocados to grow in a wide variety of soils (pH 5–7), their tolerance to moderate dryness, and their lower susceptibility to variations in rainfall in comparison to coffee are some of the reasons why avocados are so popular.

It has been determined that avocados are more environmentally friendly and can be cultivated in a greater number of places in Kenya. 

2.      Land Preparation and Cost of Establishment

Getting a coffee plantation off the ground requires a significant financial investment in seedlings, the preparation of the site, fertilizers, mulching materials, and the regular removal of weeds and pruning. The requirement for ongoing agronomic support and pest management contributes to a rise in the overall cost. After two to three years, a farmer can anticipate the first harvest that is meaningful, and the highest yields can be expected after the fifth year. Many smallholders frequently rely on cooperatives for support, and the return on investment is typically over a long period of time.

In particular, the adoption of organic farming practices results in a substantial reduction in the setup costs associated with Hass avocado production. Seedlings that have been grafted, hole preparation, and manure are the first expenses that are the most significant. It is necessary to perform only a small amount of tilling, and there is a reduced reliance on artificial fertilizers and pesticides. After two to three years, grafted avocado trees will begin to produce fruit, and by the fifth year, commercial harvests will have reached their highest point.

The conclusion is that avocado cultivation is more cost-effective to begin with and to continue, particularly for smallholders.

3.      Management of Insects and Diseases

There are a variety of pests and illnesses that can affect coffee, including the coffee berry borer, leaf rust, and the infamous Coffee Berry Disease (CBD). Coffee is susceptible to all of these. Because of this, they require constant chemical spraying, which drives up production costs and increases the risks to the environment.

Despite the fact that avocados are not immune to difficulties, the pests and diseases that they are susceptible to, such as fruit flies, root rot, thrips, and anthracnose, are manageable through the use of integrated pest management and organic solutions. Moreover, avocado pests hardly seldom result in the complete destruction of the crop.

Avocados have less and more manageable pest problems, particularly when grown using organic methods.

4.      Labor and Maintenance

Coffee cultivation requires a lot of manual labour. Manual harvesting, selective selecting, pruning, mulching, and processing are all examples of activities that demand ongoing labour throughout the year.

Every fourth year coffee has to be heavily pruned/cut. Allow suckers from the lower side of the stem to grow then cut off completely the older plant. The suckers will resume production in the second year. 

The post-establishment labour requirements for avocados are lower. Pruning, irrigation during dry seasons, and harvesting, which is typically done twice a year, make up the majority of the labour that needs to be addressed. Young trees require some maintenance, but once they reach maturity, avocado orchards are able to support themselves to a certain extent.

 Agricultural production of avocados requires less manpower, which results in lower overall operational expenses over the long term.

5.      Maturity Period and Yield

A well-managed coffee bush can yield 2–3 kg of parchment coffee per season. The crop can be harvested twice a year in Kenya—main and fly crop seasons—but yield is heavily influenced by weather and pest pressure.

An avocado tree that has reached maturity can produce between 400 and 600 fruits annually. If the trees are pruned and cared for properly, a single acre can support up to 150 trees, which might result in more than 60,000 fruits being produced annually.

The conclusion is that Hass avocado yields are not only higher in volume but also in value when they are sold in the appropriate manner.

6.      Market Trends and Profit Margins

Because of its robust flavour and aroma, Kenyan coffee is highly regarded all over the world. As a result of the current price surge, which is being driven by global supply restrictions and increased demand, some farmers have been able to earn upwards of Ksh 120–150 per kilogram. When it comes to coffee, however, the value chain is extremely regulated, and a large number of smallholder growers rely on cooperatives, which can occasionally delay payments.

The demand for Hass avocados is expanding at an exponential rate in Europe, China, and the Middle East, which is driving the market for Hass avocados to explode. A fruit that used to sell for between 3 and 5 Kenyan shillings now fetches between 10 and 30 Kenyan shillings, depending on the buyer and the quality of the fruit. Some companies offer contract farming and these companies frequently offer bonuses for production of premium quality. Additionally, avocado growing has made it possible to extract avocado oil, particularly for organically certified farms, which has resulted in the creation of an additional source of revenue.

A conclusion can be drawn that coffee is experiencing a short price surge, whereas avocados have a long-term demand that is steady and has various income streams.

7.      Value Addition Opportunities

The processes of roasting, grinding, packing, and branding are all examples of value addition in coffee. In spite of the fact that it is profitable, it demands a significant investment in both market access and equipment. Only a small number of farmers oversee the entire value chain.

It is possible to extract oil from avocados, process them into cosmetics, and even export dry or frozen avocados. All of these activities add value to avocados. This has been demonstrated by businesses such as Olivado in Murang'a, who have demonstrated that organic certification can greatly increase the revenue of smallholder farmers.

Healthy avocado seedlings ready for transplanting

Therefore, avocados offer local farmers more diverse and easily accessible opportunities to add value to their products.

8.      Export Dynamics and Market Access

Although the Kenyan coffee export business is well-established, it is frequently criticized for being dominated by brokers and overseas purchasers who are responsible for setting pricing. In addition to having limited bargaining leverage, farmers sometimes find the auction system to be difficult to navigate for individual farms.

The diversification of Kenya's avocado export destinations has been brought about by the country's entry into the Chinese and Middle Eastern markets. An increasing number of exporters are establishing direct relationships with farmers, providing them with training, assistance with quality assurance, and even seedling supply. Smallholder farmers have found it much simpler to penetrate specialized markets as a result of the existence of organic certification schemes.

The conclusion is that, in comparison to the conventional coffee system, avocado exports provide models that are more adaptable and inclusive of individual farmers.

9.      Risks and Resilience

Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and the introduction of new pests all contribute to a decrease in coffee production, which is a big concern for the coffee industry. A steady supply of rainwater is also necessary for the crop in order to achieve optimal blooming and berry growth.

This coffee farm was established in 1928 in Lower Subukia, Kiboronjo. And with proper maintenance production has never stopped

Avocados are more drought-resistant and adaptable than other plants, despite the fact that they are sensitive to flower shedding during wet seasons and root rot in soils that have poor drainage. The majority of dangers can be reduced through the use of irrigation during dry spells and thorough soil management.

With that we can determine that avocados are more climate-resilient and adaptive for growers working on a smaller scale.

In the year 2025, should you cultivate avocados or coffee? An ultimate verdict.

The cultivation of avocados and coffee each have significant contributions to make to Kenya's agricultural economy. Coffee prices are experiencing a surge in the short term, which makes it an excellent choice for growers who are already involved in the industry.

For those who are new to the industry, landowners who are looking for crops that require less upkeep, or investors who are looking for long-term security, Hass avocado farming is the best option. Avocados are more than simply a crop; they are a gateway to agribusiness prosperity in Kenya since they have lower initial costs, require less maintenance, have more diverse markets, and many value chains.

Bonus Advice for Farmers

·   Consider intercropping young avocado trees with legumes or vegetables to maximize land use before full canopy cover.

·   For coffee farmers, explore direct trade and micro-lot (direct to consumer) marketing to increase income margins.

·    Embrace organic certification to tap into premium export markets for either crop.

·  Join cooperatives or farmer groups focused on quality enhancement and market access.

For further consultations reach out to us on 0724698357 or email us on info@richfarmkenya.com. We also have all varieties of fruit seedling that you would like to establish in your orchard.